As we stand on the brink of a new year, it’s always fun to predict what will be the major tech stories and trends for the year ahead. To add a bit of fun (and a touch of stress), I like to make my predictions measurable. This way it is easy to look back a year from now and see if I was right or wrong. I get some predictions spot on – this year, I correctly predicted the growing mention of Zero Knowledge Proof technology on analyst briefing calls; while definitely missing others - I’ve been predicting that Databricks would float on the stock market for years.

For 2025 I present four bold predictions… Quantum computing breakthroughs, significant acquisitions by tech giants, a major supply chain disruption, and a resurgence of tech IPOs. Join me as we explore them in more detail.

Prediction 1: A company will release a quantum computer with 7,000 or more qubits

A qubit, or quantum bit, is the fundamental unit of information in quantum computing. Unlike a classical bit, which can be either 0 or 1, a qubit can exist in a state of 0, 1, or both simultaneously. This allows it to solve complex problems faster than classical computers. For over a decade now, organisations have been building quantum computers, but progress has been slower than initially predicted – it’s a tough technology to crack. In 2023, Atom Computing released one boasting 1,180 qubits; then in November of this year, D-Wave announced it would soon release one with 4,400 qubits – shocking the market as many analysts thought we’d only reach 3,000 in 2025.

However, I believe that quantum computing might now be at the knee of the curve and will follow the “gradually, then suddenly” path, where a technology that has previously improved by only small amounts suddenly takes giant leaps forward. Therefore, I’m going bold and predicting that 7,000 is achievable in 2025. It’s not just Atom and D-Wave in the race, behemoths like Google and IBM are also in contention. The market they are all trying to capture has been, and is predicted to continue, growing rapidly – from a market size of c£1.8bn in 2023 to c$24bn by 2030.

Prediction 2: The magnificent seven will collectively make 15 or more acquisitions

Meta, Amazon, Apple, Tesla, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Nvidia are collectively known as the ‘magnificent seven’ in technology circles. Their combined revenue in the past year was just shy of $2trillion – which is more than the GDP of Australia. Despite their size, they still seek growth through acquisitions. However, governments have had growing concerns about their dominance - of the 43 companies they’ve tried to acquire in 2024, so far they have completed only 8. I think they’ll complete more acquisitions in 2025 as the Trump presidency is expected to ease the stringent US antitrust enforcement policies, which have scuppered many a deal. Apple is likely to go after health tech companies to incorporate into their wearables, and Microsoft will target cloud and cybersecurity companies.

Prediction 3: There’ll be at least one massive chip issue

A high percentage of Neon comes from the Donbas region of Ukraine near the eastern boarder with Russia. Semi-conductor manufacturers like Intel use the gas in lasers to etch patterns onto silicon, a key process in making computer chips. Russia has shown strong interest in the region, so there could be logistical issues with getting the gas out, or other countries may include Neon gas on import bans. Either way there could be a supply chain issue. Additionally, Taiwan makes approximately 65% of the world’s semi-conductors. Tensions with China have been escalating which could disrupt supply chains. Another possibility is that there could be a natural disaster that disrupts production, like the 2021 water shortage in Taiwan. Without chips being made we don’t get new phones, medical devices or computers. Keeping assets in stock is expensive but not being able to run your business effectively can be even more so.

Prediction 4: At least 40 tech companies will list on the US stock market

The technology IPO market has been subdued for the past couple of years due to large devaluations, economic uncertainty, and rising investor expectations. In 2024 only 24 tech companies have been listed on the NYSE, with half now underwater – which means they are worth less today than when they went public. As market conditions improve, I predict an upswing with a smaller percentage underwater. Oh, and Databricks will finally go public.

What do you think? Do you think they will be hits or misses?

In January I’ll come back with a new post on general tech trends, how they could impact businesses, and how you can harness their benefits and contain the risks. I promise it won’t just be about GenAI but will also look at cybersecurity and networks, amongst others.

Feel free to reach out to me at any time. Let's connect, collaborate, and make 2025 a great year.

Vote here for which of Shona's tech predictions for 2025 you think is most likely?

Words by Shona Claremont

Edited by Robin Hyde